Can You Believe This?

I am no Jack Welch to dispute the latest NFP number. Former, very successful, GE CEO came out yesterday publicly questioning the integrity of Household Data (table below), as total September 2012 employment increased by 873K, which he said is not possible at current GDP growth rate. But I say: it is what it is, and traders will have to trade based on it.

click on table to enlarge

Conspiracy theories aside, I would like to discuss something else I do not believe. So my immediate thought, as NFP release hit the tape, was: wow, unemployment (UE) rate is just 0.9% away from Fed's target! Charles "The Dove" Evans told us earlier this week, that UE has to drop below 7% for Fed to consider stopping QEInfinity. Do you believe him? Not in our lifetime, I say. The doves at the Fed are so scared of stopping their helicopter money drop, that as soon as they see UE just below 7%, they will use another economic criterion to peg their policy decisions to. At this rate (September showed 0.3% improvement) UE will drop below 7% in just three months. Can you imagine Fed stopping QEInfinity in January of 2013, after they told us that "rates will stay at exceptionally low levels through mid-2015"? I can't...