Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Is Copper Going To Crash?

As a trader I want to be ready for possible major moves in the market.
With this in mind I would like to share what I see in Copper Futures. In the last few weeks I have been waiting for a possible start of right shoulder formation, as a part of head and shoulders pattern on long-term chart. This possible development can lead to a pretty large move down.

Below is the weekly (on close) chart. It has a lot of information on it. But if you are familiar with charts it should be easy to digest. I am making a case for comparison to prior double-top (dt) pattern which led to projected distance (pd) sell-off once 31-month long neckline (nl) broke. Yes, it would be a dramatic plunge. I also understand that 2008 sell-off was a result of the GFC. I realize that fundamentals like improved U.S. new construction and insatiable Chinese demand will be going against my thesis here. But I am sorry, I am looking for a bearish case to take over soon, very soon, like right now! It is my chart, and I am the boss here... Just kidding... I can debate all of the fundamentals: while U.S. new construction has rebounded, it is still at very contracted level. Chinese copper imports fell in January (according to the latest import data), while stockpiles in China are only half of last year's level, making me believe that speculators and merchants are piling in (no pun intended) and are storing in preparation for continued demand, but China may have all it needs for now. I do not think that China can infinitely continue to build "ghost cities" just for the sake of employing its people.

click on chart to enlarge
To make things a little more convincing I also zoomed in on daily. You can see that it is conceivable that repeat of 2011 sell-off is about to ensue, which will lead to a larger sell-off that I am looking for.

click on chart to enlarge

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