Wednesday, January 11, 2012

10 Yr T-Note Futures Breakout?

With equities on the rise, why is 10 Yr T-Note looking like it is about to breakout higher? Myriad of reasons may apply:

1. Fed has been speaking dovishly lately (with exception of very few). QE3 may be around the corner.
2. EU debt crisis is not resolved. LTRO did wonders on liquidity front. But solvency issues are far from being resolved.
3. Crawling DM and slowing EM GDP growth is weighing on investor sentiment towards the risk.

So we have possible conditions for ZN highs to be taken out.
Below is the chart of trend + momentum. It looks like bull flag is resolving in the direction of the trend. Bulls are buying breakout and possible o/n pullback to apex. The distance is 3 points. That would be one crazy move, resulting in new historical lows on yield.

click on chart to enlarge

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