Tuesday, October 25, 2011

SPX Symmetry = Top

I think this may be how we find a top of this astonishing bull run from Oct 4.
At its highest point yesterday SPX was 26 points above established 2-months trading range: 1101 - 1230. On Oct 4 SPX bottomed 26 points below the aforementioned range. Coincidence? I am a strong believer that symmetry has a profound effect on charts. Add the fact that yesterday's high was one point below flat on the year, and you get a possible "get me out" picture. Funds which track SPX closely, and were down for the year, may have decided to sell at break-even point and buy back later at a lower level. At the same time shorts could have gotten somewhat better level of entry, as this was also 61.8% fib of plunge from July 21.

I am in the camp of new trading range for the foreseeable future: 1150 - 1300. So my thesis will be to look for a pullback and a better entry (below 1200). Double top on hourly ES and NQ futures (at 24hr session levels today) is yet another chart I am tracking for my conviction on this pullback view. Shorts do not want to overstay their welcome if those highs are taken out. Placing a stop above those highs is a must.

Good luck with your trading!

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