Monday, August 15, 2011

Did $GOOG $MMI deal just put $NDX top in??

I will not pretend to be a mobile market expert. But I think GOOG just put NDX near-term top in by buying MMI. I understand why they did it: patents, footprint, AAPL dominance, blah, blah, blah. But all I really care about is the following:

AAPL = 12% of NDX and GOOG = 6% of NDX

So, with two giants battling it out, both stocks will be under pressure for a while.
GOOG will be a waiting game, show me story, and a risk. Breakdown:
Waiting game for regulatory approval. We remember how DCLK deal weighed on shares. And let's not forget simple arbitrage, folks.
Show me story, because they are going to have to show how the patent portfolio and all the manufacturing biz they acquired will be divested/implemented/synergized.
Risk is that Android partners walk, and do it rather fast, even though they signed off on the deal. Just not ready to do it today yet.

And AAPL shares will be weighed down by a formidable threat of a very strong competitor arising from this deal.

So you get 18% of NDX stuck in a mud and going nowhere fast because of MMI acquisition by GOOG.

I know, I will get some angry comments now :)

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