Friday, July 1, 2011

Econodata July 1

US data: mixed to strong. I will start by saying ISM was a solid report. All components were higher, with exception of exports and imports. SOLID!! On the weak side consumer sentiment was revised down just a bit, and construction spending declined. Folks, we do not need any new homes in US, we have enough existing unsold homes to last us a good while. So ISM definitely wins the contest...

Asia and Australia: Japanese Tankan, both mfg and non-mfg came in weaker than expected. Poor Japan, just can not catch a break.
Chinese Mfg PMI also came in weaker than expected. Both gov't and HSBC surveys are showing a slowdown in Chinese juggernaut economy. Not Good!!! We are going to worry about this now and need to see what Dr. Copper says about it. For those who do not know, copper is a very good indicator of Chinese economy, as it is used for construction. Well, Dr. Copper is up today, so we are not as worried just yet...
Aussie AIG Mfg Index went up. Respectable number after weakness for 3 months in a row. Nothing to see here, mate...

Europe: weak numbers. Swiss PMI came in weaker than expected - another reason why CHF is down today.
UK Mfg PMI weaker than expected. GBP/USD took a dive below 1.60 but came back up, 1.60 - 1.61 range traders are having their couple of days of fun. I see a symmetrical hourly triangle forming. Anyone wanna take a guess which way it breaks out??
EU numbers across the board are stinky. Spanish and Italian Mfg PMI were 47.3 and 49.9 respectively, lowest since Jan. 2010 and Oct. 2009 respectively. Above 50 is considered an expansion and below 50 is contraction, need I say more? Those yesterday's comments by Mr. Trichet sound even more bizarre now. Mr. Trichet said yesterday: "Incoming information in recent weeks has confirmed a positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area". Say what?? Has someone among his staff given him a wrong data? Or maybe his office window is facing North? Southern Europe is in shambles, Sir...

So the underlying theme: world economic activity is slowing down. There are no two ways about it. "Slow patch"?? We will see...

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