Monday, June 27, 2011

Greece - talking about a strong opinion...

So we are told, ENDLESSLY, that this week the financial Armageddon II is coming to town near you. Gurus from all the ends of the world are telling us it will be caused by sovereign debt default of Greece. Who are they kidding?? We are traders and we see that absolutely noway this will happen. I will put a few thoughts together here for ring leaders: Mr. Roubini, Mr. Soros, Mr. Faber, and Mr. Taleb to fall back onto when their circus leaves the town with no tickets sold.

Euro is trading at 1.4122 as I type this post on June 27, 2011 @ 1 am EDT.
If Greece will default euro is dead, so they say. Dead? We are trading 260 pips above 200 day moving average. Need I say more?? Yes I know, there is that very important vote in Greece parliament and there are already defections by two members of ruling party, CDS of all peripheral euro nations blew out again last week (to the highest ever), and so did the bond interest rate spread between peripherals and German bund, and rating agencies threatened to downgrade their view on yet another batch of banks (in Italy this time),  blah, blah, blah... To counter all of that is the fact that Germany France and now China are standing by with boatload of cash to absorb all of Greece's bonds and furthermore have talked the banks holding the debt to roll it forward and take a haircut. Who in the right state of mind would let a small default control the fate of the entire Europe? All of this fear mongering is a carefully designed theater, with actors who are nothing but traders in disguise. They are going to be on the winning side as the small guy pukes his euros out in disbelief that two defecting parliament members could collapse the entire world's financial system. PLEASE!!!!!

So here we are at 1.4122 on EUR/USD with all that priced in. Is the default by other peripherals priced in too? I guarantee that no sole on planet earth knows for sure. So therefore it is slowly descending and not falling apart. We are to monitor the developments and be ready to buy the heck out of it when no such scenario (euro death) transpires. We are to be ready willing and able to act on chart formation bottoming above 200 day moving average which will produce a rally of multiple hundred pips at least, sending the euro currency back to 50 dma @ 1.44 currently, and perhaps even higher to the top of the daily chart triangle @ 1.45 - 1.4550!

Please note that this post is for educational purposes only. I am in noway responsible for any of your trades and have merely suggested my own view on current market conditions. 

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