Thursday, June 30, 2011

Gold - what happened?

Traders are scratching their head about gold's performance today. I for one am not surprised, as we identified what is happening with "precious". But nonetheless lets speculate why on the day, when the King Dollar is acting more like a toad, gold is down $8, and continuing to fall as I type. I found more questions than answers. Is euro still alive? Greece did not blow up. No Financial Armageddon II means no euro death and no need for "new reserve currency" gold. But we knew this days ago. How about equities are up? That negative correlation has not been too reliable lately. This brings us to a very interesting and possible third reason: Grains. USDA Crop Report, released this morning (2 min earlier than expected, can you say Investigation?), showed huge corn crop and stockpiles. This sent grains across the entire ag complex to lock limit down (no trading, as the price reaches lowest allowed fall below previous close). Experienced traders will tell you that grain prices always affect gold. Why? Grains are considered an inflation gauge, as they are in so many food products. Since grain prices are falling this morning - gold (the "inflation hedge") followed. I find this the best explanation why there is no love for precious today. But really - it is being hit from all fronts, which used to prop it up before...

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